Sydney, Australia & London, UK

Hello,

I'm Mike Turner

I'm a pollster and strategist, working mostly on complex regulatory, public policy, and communications challenges.

I've been a senior advisor on several pivotal election campaigns in the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand.

I give talks, author papers and conduct research projects on how society, public policy, and campaigns are changing, as well as what the driving forces behind these changes are.

About Michael

Dr Mike Turner is a British-Australian pollster and political strategist who has been a senior advisor on several pivotal election campaigns in the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand.

He has a reputation for producing best in class research insights, and has been a leading pollster on election campaigns for over a decade.

Michael is unique, in that he has experience working with political parties across the political spectrum.

He was chief pollster for the Liberal Party of Australia for several years, including at the 2019 and 2022 Federal Election campaigns. Before that, when he was Head of Polling at BMG Research, he was chief pollster for the UK Labour Party. This includes the 2017 UK General Election, which was one of the most successful campaigns in British electoral history, with a more than 20pt swing towards the Labour Party over the course of the campaign. Michael has also conducted research for the National Party of Australia, the UK Liberal Democrats, the UK Independence Party, the National Party in New Zealand, and several other political parties and candidates for elections across the world.

Michael co-founded the consultancy, Freshwater Strategy, with Jonathon Flegg, and Nicholas Nogarotto, in July 2022.

Michael is a Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society, in London, UK. He is also a Fellow at the Adam Smith Institute, where he has co-authored  several papers on key areas of public policy.

Michael holds a PhD in Political Science from The Elections Centre, at the University of Plymouth, UK. His doctoral thesis focused on elections and campaigns, identifying and measuring the advantage of incumbency.

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Latest

November 2024

Australia’s gender divide: Why young men and women are pulling apart

"There is a big divide on social and cultural issues and that is sustained by technology and institutions,” says Freshwater Strategy director Dr Michael Turner. Along with the changing nature of work and globalisation, these are two of the four forces that are shifting the way politics affects people’s lives.

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November 2024

Why did polls get Trump so wrong, again?

Dr Mike Turner explains how last-minute polling in the Midwest swing states seem to have given a false impression of the strength of support for Kamala Harris. And how leaders in Queensland and the US were both 'suckered' by the late polls.

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July 2024

The Conservatives imploded. Labour simply filled the vacuum

Freshwater Director, Dr Mike Turner, outlines how Labour’s landslide shares few parallels with Tony Blair’s 1997 win, with Keir Starmer’s small target strategy threadbare of substantive policy, and how Nigel Farage will turn Westminster into something of a campaigning chamber for his agenda

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June 2024

Nigel Farage ‘smelt blood’ and announced return to politics

Pollster and Political Strategist Michael Turner says there is an element of “smelling blood” to the timing of Nigel Farage’s return to politics. “I certainly think he’s made the most of it,” Mr Turner told Sky News Australia. “He would argue that the initial announcement set him back. “At the same time Nigel is a formidable campaigner, so we’ll take what he says with a pinch of salt.”

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May 2024

Rishi Sunak ‘afraid’ of putting on ‘one of the worst’ election performances

Dr Michael Turner says UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is “afraid” of having “one of the worst election performances in 100 years” by the Conservative Party. It is just over a month to go until British voters head to the polls for an early election on July 4. “He was aware that Nigel Farage was this week planning on announcing his candidacy for Reform,” Dr Turner told Sky News Australia.

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May 2024

UK Conservatives on course for the worst result in 100 years

Freshwater Director, Dr Mike Turner, outlines the consequences of calling a ‘snap General Election’. And how the election now is more about saving Tory furniture than a victory. Sunak wants to call it quits before he breaks any records that he doesn’t want to hold.

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November 2023

Former PM returns as Foreign Secretary

Freshwater Strategy’s Dr. Mike Turner, was recently on Sky News’ AM Agenda with Laura Jayes, to discuss the implications of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s latest cabinet reshuffle. The reshuffle, dubbed as “Rishi’s campaign squad” by Turner, brings in a host of strong communicators and seasoned campaigners ahead of a critical year for the Conservative government.

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October 2023

Only two things could get the Yes camp over the line

Freshwater Director, Dr Mike Turner, draws on parallels from the UK's EU referendum and outlines how referendums create new political divisions

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October 2023

Kiwis holding back five days out from election

Analysis of The Post/Freshwater Strategy polling shows that the vast majority of those currently holding back voted for Jacinda Ardern in 2020, and are hugely supportive of the former Prime Minister

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September 2023

RedBridge poll: Support for Voice to Parliament dropped 5pc in a month

Freshwater director Mike Turner, who in the past has worked as a pollster for the Coalition, said the low support for the Voice by its voters should be worrying Labor.

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September 2023

Who is winning the battle of Chris vs Chris?

However, even among this critical group, Labour are losing to National on the fundamentals: on running the country, keeping prices low, economic management and responding to crime. “So, they have their work cut out,” Turner warned.

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September 2023

Nearly two-thirds of voters think country going in wrong direction

While the headline figures of the party vote poll published on Thursday are concerning for Hipkins, Turner points out that there is a path to victory and about 300,000 erstwhile voters are still up for grabs.

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September 2023

Labour slumps to new poll low but numbers offer some comfort

Freshwater director pollster Mike Turner – who has polled for Boris Johnson, Scott Morrison, Jeremy Corbyn and Liz Truss – said the outcome was “by no-means fixed”, and there was plenty of opportunity for Hipkins to snatch the lead back if he and Labour had a good campaign.

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April 2023

The NSW election was no landslide for Labor

Despite hyperbole on the night, it’s clear that the 2023 NSW State Election was not a Labor landslide. Here are three lessons from the data.

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February 2023

Dominic Perrottet closes in on Chris Minns

The small target strategy has backfired a bit ... people don’t know what Minns is for and what he’s about,” Freshwater director Mike Turner said.

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October 2022

As Boris eyes comeback, Tories see disaster

“I do think there is a possibility that Boris Johnson meets the 100 mark and Rishi has already proven he can do it,” Dr Turner told Sky News Australia.

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October 2022

‘Wouldn’t rule it out’: ‘Chatter’ surrounding Boris Johnson’s political return

Freshwater Strategy Director Dr Michael Turner says he “wouldn’t rule out” former UK prime minister Boris Johnson’s return to run for Conservative Party leadership.

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September 2022

A confident Keir Starmer sets out plans to make Britain a ‘green, growth superpower’

The poll was conducted Mike Turner, of Australian consultancy Freshwater Strategy, who conducted polling for Jeremy Corbyn’s 2017 campaign, the Liberals in Australia, and most recently Liz Truss’ successful leadership bid.

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September 2022

UK entering a state of 'absolute crisis'

Freshwater Strategy Director Dr Michael Turner says the United Kingdom is entering a state of “absolute crisis” as the country battles with energy issues.  Dr Turner said it has essentially come down to supply and demand. “Ultimately, the supply’s being shortened, particularly gas and prices are rocketing as a result,” he told Sky News Australia. “Clearly there is an issue that needs to be resolved pretty quickly.”

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September 2022

Could be a ‘bit of a problem’ if Boris Johnson decides to ‘stick around’ in UK parliament

Dr Turner said incoming UK prime minister Liz Truss gave a nod to Mr Johnson during her victory speech.“In part, I think that is a signal to say that she is going to respect his legacy,” he told Sky News Australia.“But I also think there could be a bit of a problem if Boris decides to stick around in parliament.”

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August 2022

Sir Keir Starmer seen as a ‘wooden character’

Freshwater Strategy Director Michael Turner says UK Labour Leader Sir Keir Starmer is seen as a “wooden character”.

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July 2022

Values vs policy: How a new 'luxury belief class' is changing politics

He’s polled for Scott Morrison, Jeremy Corbyn and now Liz Truss. But strategist Mike Turner says political campaigns – and voters – are changing.

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March 2022

London Influence: March of the makers — Registrar rumble — Get mentoring

Michael Turner has been promoted to global head of research and insights at the Lynton Crosby-led C|T Group. The top pollster’s been head of research at C|T for more than three years, joining from BMG Research.

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